Goal of this analysis is to figure out if temperature is the factor that impact transmission rate of Covid-19

I'm going to use the 2 datasets

  1. Covid-19 cases from 22nd January 2020 to 18th June 2020
  2. Global Land Temperature from 1st November 1743 to 2013-09-01

Load Libraries

Load Dataset

Confirmed Cases Globally

Let's first see the pandemic geographically

Now See how fast COVID-19 pandemic spread over time

Graph looks like exponential growth So let's use the exponential growth function

Exponential Function is : N(t) = N0*e^(at)
            N(t) is confirmed cases at time t
            N0 is the initial number of case at time 0
            a is contant rate
            t is time

Dividing both sides by N0 then take the natural log of both sides, then I get
ln(N(t) / N0) = at
By calculating left hand side, we can get a constant rate for each country's infective rate

Change of rate over time

Top 10 High Rate Country

Now it's time to take a look at the land temperature

Global Land Temperature

Squeezing the date range in Feb to May since COVID-19 cases dataset is from 22nd January 2020 to 18th June 2020

Categorize Countries into 4 ranges

Let's compare rate and temperature

Check each TempZone's average rate

Infection Rate is getting higher as it goes to TempZone 1
This tells us that Coronavirus spread more quickly in lower temperature area and spread slowly in higher temperature area

Summary

  1. Temperature is one of the key factors for the Coronavirus to thrive
  2. Coronavirus spread fast at temperate of lower than 8 degree Celcisus
  3. Coronavirus spread slow at temperate of higher than 26 degree Celcius
  4. Infection rate is closely related to the climate